California’s Air Resources Board formally submitted its waiver request to the EPA seeking approval for the state’s Advanced Clean Cars II regulation — which would prohibit the sale of new gasoline-powered passenger vehicles by 2035. The waiver process exists because California has a unique historical authority under the Clean Air Act to set its own emissions standards stricter than federal baselines, with other states allowed to adopt California’s standards.
The EPA waiver process is procedurally significant even though the outcome is widely expected to favor California. Under the Biden administration, federal support for California’s clean vehicle standards has been strong, and approval of the waiver would give legal force to the 2035 sales ban. Once California’s waiver is approved, the states that have adopted California’s standards — currently about a dozen — would also implement the ban, representing a significant share of the US new vehicle market.
The practical implications of California’s ban extend well beyond the state’s borders. California is the largest US auto market, and the combined sales volume of states that follow California’s standards approaches 40% of national new vehicle sales. Automakers serving this market effectively face a de facto nationwide mandate to have largely electric lineups by the mid-2030s, regardless of what the federal EPA rules ultimately require.
The 2035 target has generated ongoing debate about feasibility. California’s own charging infrastructure buildout has struggled to keep pace with its EV adoption targets, and the ban creates real challenges for lower-income buyers and rural residents whose driving patterns and access to home charging differ significantly from the suburban and urban early adopters who have driven EV adoption to date. The regulation assumes solutions to these problems will materialize — a significant bet on technology and infrastructure development.
The political durability of the 2035 ban is also a legitimate question. A future EPA administrator less favorable to California’s standards could attempt to revoke the waiver, and any significant change in federal administration could reopen the question. What happens to the vehicle market if policy certainty around the 2035 ban erodes is something automakers and investors are factoring into their planning, even if they don’t discuss it publicly.
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