By Eve Nowell 
Ford is promising a profit rebound in 2026. But let’s be clear about what just happened: a $900 million surprise tariff blow at the end of last year exposed just how fragile the modern auto business has become.
On Dec. 23, the Trump administration informed Ford it could only apply a tariff-reduction measure on imported auto parts dating back to November, not May. That single decision effectively doubled Ford’s tariff burden to $2 billion in 2025. The company now expects to carry that same weight again this year. Two billion dollars is not a rounding error. It is a direct hit to earnings, planning and pricing.
Ford’s fourth-quarter adjusted earnings fell to 13 cents a share, missing expectations. Its core Ford Blue division — the trucks and gas-powered vehicles that built the brand — saw profits cut roughly in half year over year. Even Ford Pro, the company’s commercial backbone, posted lower earnings. The only bright spot was that its electric division lost slightly less money than before — still a staggering $4.8 billion loss for the year. This is what volatility looks like when policy, supply chains and strategy collide.
The company was already reeling from fires at Novelis’ New York mill that disrupted aluminum supply and wiped out about $2 billion worth of F-Series production last year. Now Ford must buy more foreign-made aluminum, triggering additional import taxes on its most important product line. The F-Series is not a niche experiment. It is the profit engine.
At the same time, Ford is leaning into regulatory changes that eliminate penalties for missing fuel economy and emissions targets. That reprieve opens the door to selling more high-margin SUVs and pickups — the vehicles customers actually want and that keep the lights on in Dearborn.
But none of this erases the hard truth: Ford is navigating a minefield of tariff shocks, supply disruptions and an expensive electric vehicle overhaul that included $19.5 billion in charges. Capital spending will climb as high as $10.5 billion this year while the company restructures and launches a separate energy storage business. Investors have rewarded the stock’s momentum, and executives insist profitability is improving. Maybe it is.
But this episode is a warning shot. When a policy tweak can double a company’s tariff bill overnight, when a single supplier fire can vaporize billions in truck production, and when EV ambitions burn billions annually, the industry isn’t operating from a position of strength. It is reacting.
Ford says it sees a path to as much as $10 billion in adjusted earnings before interest and taxes in 2026. It will have to earn every dollar. This isn’t a victory lap. It’s damage control — and a reminder that the auto industry doesn’t get to coast on brand loyalty and truck sales forever. When costs spiral and strategy drifts, reality forces a reset.
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