A family of four flying domestic at the average round-trip fare the federal government measured in the second quarter pays $2,196. The same four people driving 1,200 miles round trip in a 20-mpg SUV burn about $247 of gas at today’s price. That gap has survived a 35 percent jump in pump prices, and last year’s AAA forecast had nearly nine in ten Thanksgiving travelers going by car.
Gas and airfares both rose, but not by the same amount
AAA’s national average for regular was $4.1239 on Nov. 4, according to its daily gas price page. That is down from $4.2471 a week earlier and $4.3697 a month earlier, and up from $3.0528 a year ago, a 35 percent increase by The Auto Wire’s math. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly survey put regular at $4.269 for the week of Oct. 26. AAA’s figure is a daily reading and EIA’s is a weekly one, so they will not match exactly.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports for September that gasoline prices were up 34.2 percent over twelve months and airline fares were up 22.4 percent. We covered the gasoline side of that release in our look at the September CPI. Fuel rose faster than tickets did, and driving still came out cheaper.
Why a $4 gallon barely changes the answer
An airline sells seats. A car burns fuel per mile no matter how many people are in it. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics says the average domestic itinerary fare in the second quarter was $445 overall, $549 for round trips and $312 one-way, up 11.2 percent from a year earlier. Those figures include taxes and mandatory fees but not bags or seat selection, and they cover the whole quarter, not the holiday week. AAA said last year that travelers had paid about $700 on average for a round-trip domestic flight at Thanksgiving, in its 2025 holiday forecast. AAA had not published its 2026 forecast when The Auto Wire checked on Nov. 4.
Take the BTS round-trip figure and a 1,200-mile round trip. The EPA’s latest Automotive Trends data put the average new vehicle at 27.2 mpg in real-world driving for model year 2024. At that rate the trip takes 44 gallons and costs about $182. A three-row SUV or minivan getting 20 mpg uses 60 gallons and costs about $247. A truck getting 15 mpg uses 80 gallons and costs about $330. Four tickets cost $2,196. For gas to cost as much as those four tickets, a gallon would have to cost about $36.60 in the 20-mpg SUV.
Where flying wins: one traveler, or a long haul
Fuel is only part of what a car costs. AAA’s 2026 Your Driving Costs study puts the average cost of owning and running a new vehicle at 86 cents a mile, of which fuel is 17.3 cents, using regular gas at $4.152. The rest includes depreciation, insurance and financing. The IRS raised its business mileage rate to 76 cents a mile on July 1, up from 72.5 cents, a mid-year increase.
Most of the 86 cents is money you owe whether or not you drive to your parents’ house. Tires, repairs and depreciation do rise with mileage, though, and BLS found motor vehicle maintenance and repair costs up 5.8 percent over the year. If you charge the whole 86 cents to the trip, 1,200 miles costs $1,032. A solo traveler flying for $549 comes out ahead, and the break-even for one person is about 638 miles round trip. Two people paying $1,098 for tickets are close to even. Three or more people, driving wins even on full cost.
Airfare also leaves out the rental car or the ride from the airport at the other end. The drive has its own cost: time. AAA’s 2025 forecast, built with INRIX, expected the worst traffic on the Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons before Thanksgiving and heavy traffic on Sunday for the return. Our Thanksgiving travel survival guide covers how to leave around it.
What to check before you load the car
The 27.2 mpg figure is a fleet average, so use your own fill-up numbers for the estimate; a loaded three-row vehicle with a roof box will likely land below it. If gas prices are making you rethink the vehicle itself, we put the savings from a hybrid or EV against the loan payment in an earlier piece.
AAA’s 2025 forecast had 73.3 million of 81.8 million Thanksgiving travelers going by car and 6 million flying. This year’s forecast, and the price at the pump on Thanksgiving Day, which was $3.06 last year, will show whether $4 gas changed that split at all.
Are you driving or flying to Thanksgiving this year, and what would gas or airfare have to cost to make you switch?